Cambodia Investment Review

Opinion: What Will Cambodia-US Relations in Trump 2.0 Be Like?

Opinion: What Will Cambodia-US Relations in Trump 2.0 Be Like?

By So Channtha

The return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2025 raises important questions about the future of Cambodia-US relations. With its complicated history as a friend and foe of the US, Cambodia sits at a crossroads in its relations with the United States and China. 

There was significant tension in relations during Donald Trump’s first term. It is uncertain whether the next term will be better unless both sides are ready to compromise their policy, especially regarding Cambodia’s balancing act between the US and China.

Historical Cooperation and​ Strained Relations  

Cambodia-US relations have been characterized by periods of cooperation, tension, and estrangement. Relations date back to the 1950s when the US recognized Cambodia’s independence from France. During the Vietnam War, Cambodia’s neutrality was compromised, leading to the US bombing of eastern Cambodia. 

Read More: Opinion: What Can Cambodia Expect from ‘Trumponomics 2.0’?

The subsequent rise of the Khmer Rouge regime and its fall in 1979 further complicated relations. The 1991 Paris Peace Accords marked a turning point, as the US supported Cambodia’s democratic transition. 

However, relations have been strained in recent years because of concerns over Cambodia’s human rights recorddemocratic backsliding, and growing ties with China

The first Trump administration took a mixed approach to Cambodia, making some efforts to engage but also escalating criticism and sanctions related to democratic concerns. The Biden administration continued to voice concerns about Cambodia’s democratic trajectory and human rights situation while also seeking areas for cooperation. 

Despite these challenges, the two countries maintain diplomatic ties and engage on trade, cultural exchanges, and regional security issues. 

The complex history and evolving geopolitical dynamics in Southeast Asia continue to shape the nuanced relationship between the United States and Cambodia. The ongoing tensions have led to a delicate balancing act with both sides attempting to find common ground despite their differences. 

Economic cooperation remains a potential avenue for improved ties as Cambodia seeks to diversify its trade partnerships and attract foreign investment. Additionally, shared interests in regional stability and counterterrorism efforts provide opportunities for dialogue and collaboration between the nations.

The New Challenges

A Trump 2.0 administration will likely encounter several challenges in its diplomatic relations with Cambodia. Among these are concerns about human rights and democracy, as Cambodia has experienced notable democratic backsliding, which might prompt further sanctions or a reduction in bilateral engagement. 

Human rights and democratic backsliding are critical issues in contemporary global politics, particularly in Cambodia-US relations. 

The deterioration of human rights and democracy in Cambodia has been a significant source of tension in Cambodia-US relations. This divergence in perspectives on human rights and democracy has led to increased mistrust and confrontation between the nations, hindering the development of stronger ties.   

Second, the foreign policy approach adopted by president-elect Trump is characterized as transactional, wherein he prioritized immediate, tangible benefits over long-term diplomatic relationships. 

This, combined with his tendency for abrupt decision-making, can create significant uncertainty not only in US-Cambodia relations but also in other international partnerships. 

Moreover, looming budget cuts alongside potential understaffing within the State Department could severely restrict the US capacity to engage diplomatically with Cambodia. 

Diminished resources and personnel might hinder the ability to cultivate meaningful dialogue, address pressing issues, or foster mutual understanding, ultimately affecting the effectiveness of US diplomacy in the region. 

Such limitations could lead to missed opportunities and a gap in collaboration, placing the relationship at risk of instability and miscommunication. 

Third, China’s growing influence will likely be the most significant challenge to Cambodia-US relations during Trump’s second term.

Cambodia has recently strengthened its relationship with China, receiving substantial Chinese investments and aid. This closer tie has sparked concerns in Washington about China’s expanding presence in Southeast Asia. 

The Trump administration is expected to view Cambodia-China relations through the lens of great power rivalry. This may lead to increased pressure on Cambodia, with the US potentially intensifying efforts to discourage a close alliance with China through a combination of incentives and possible punitive measures. 

In an attempt to counter Chinese influence, Trump’s administration might present Cambodia with alternative development models and investment options. 

The US could also engage with Cambodia as part of a broader strategy to maintain its influence in Southeast Asia, possibly through ASEAN-centered initiatives. Military considerations will likely be crucial, as worries about potential Chinese military access to Cambodian facilities could increase the focus on Cambodia’s strategic importance. Moreover, the US may introduce economic initiatives such as trade agreements to offer Cambodia alternatives to Chinese financial assistance.

Finally, the complexities of global politics may detract focus from Cambodia, as the Trump administration is likely to concentrate on prominent international issues and major power relations. 

The Trump administration could leverage its diplomatic and economic resources to strengthen ties with other Southeast Asian nations, indirectly influencing Cambodia’s regional position. This approach might include increased bilateral aid, trade incentives, or joint security exercises with neighboring countries.

New Path and Opportunities 

A Trump administration could offer many chances for enhancing Cambodia-US relations. Trump’s “America First” policy might stimulate increased trade and investment as Cambodia’s burgeoning economy and youthful workforce could appeal to US businesses seeking regional alternatives to China. 

Regarding security, the US may aim to fortify its ties with Cambodia as part of its comprehensive Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China’s influence, potentially involving military training, equipment sales and joint exercises. 

With Trump’s possible focus on such projects, infrastructure development could also lead to US investment in Cambodia’s transportation, energy and digital infrastructure. Additionally, counterterrorism cooperation might intensify, given Trump’s strong emphasis on national security, thereby building on existing programs.

Additionally, cultural exchanges, people-to-people interactions, and educational initiatives can persist, nurturing enduring ties between the nations. 

These potential developments could lead to a more multifaceted and robust US-Cambodia relationship, with increased economic interdependence and strategic cooperation. However, such changes might also introduce new complexities in Cambodia’s diplomatic balancing act between the US and China, potentially requiring careful navigation of regional geopolitics. 

Cambodia’s multifaceted geopolitical environment requires a smart diplomatic approach. The government must adeptly balance the benefits of Chinese assistance against the potential advantages of enhancing relations with the US. 

This strategic equilibrium may involve emphasizing Cambodia’s commitment to neutrality and non-alignment to avoid being drawn into the intensifying US-China tensions, broadening international partnerships to reduce dependence on any single power, leveraging ASEAN membership to navigate great power dynamics, fostering regional stability, and asserting sovereignty by maintaining independent foreign policy decisions despite pressures from both superpowers.

Conclusion 

The relationship between Cambodia and the US during the second Trump administration will be complex and multifaceted. Despite challenges, there are chances for better economic cooperation, security ties, and development partnerships. 

These include democratic practices and human rights, China’s growing influence, and the unpredictable nature of Trump’s foreign policy. The intricate dynamics of the US-China rivalry require Cambodia to manage its smart foreign policy to protect its interests.

By adopting a balanced strategy that addresses democratic and human rights concerns while pursuing economic partnerships, Cambodia can strengthen its autonomy and strategic position within Southeast Asia. Collaborative endeavors with the US and China, based on mutual respect and shared goals, are crucial for fostering regional stability and prosperity. 

Proactive engagement can assist Cambodia in building trust, expanding its diplomatic network, and enhancing its ability to navigate complex geopolitical dynamics.

So Channtha is a lecturer of politics and international relations. This article was first published in Cambodianess.

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